The temporal molecular changes that lead to disease onset and progression in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are still unknown. Here we develop a temporal model for these unobserved molecular changes with a manifold learning method applied to RNA-Seq data collected from human postmortem brain samples collected within the ROS/MAP and Mayo Clinic RNA-Seq studies. We define an ordering across samples based on their similarity in gene expression and use this ordering to estimate the molecular disease stage-or disease pseudotime-for each sample. Disease pseudotime is strongly concordant with the burden of tau (Braak score, P = 1.0 × 10